Is the housing market really overflowing with sellers? Let’s talk about that “500,000” number
If you’ve seen headlines claiming there are 500,000 more homes for sale than buyers, you’re not alone. Redfin recently released a report showing a massive gap between sellers and buyers in today’s housing market—a shift we haven’t seen in over a decade.
But is the number accurate? And what does it mean if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home? Are there really more homes for sale than buyers?
Let’s explore.
Where did the 500,000 figure come from?
Redfin’s data scientists compared the number of active home listings to the number of active homebuyers, which they estimate using recent trends in pending sales and buyer activity.
According to their calculations:
- There are about 1.9 million homes for sale.
- There are about 1.5 million active buyers.
That adds up to a gap of roughly 500,000 more sellers than buyers—a big reversal from the past few years, when buyers far outnumbered available homes.
Why some experts are skeptical
Several analysts and industry watchers have pointed out that this “sellers vs. buyers” gap may not be as large as Redfin suggests. Here’s why:
- Redfin’s listing count is higher than other sources
Redfin shows nearly 1.9 million active listings, while Realtor.com shows fewer than 1 million for the same period. That’s a huge discrepancy. Some experts believe Redfin may be double-counting or including off-market homes in their total (and there are anecdotal reports that Redfin miscounts property numbers due to data scraping errors). - Buyers are estimated, not counted
Redfin uses a model to estimate how many people are actively buying based on how long it typically takes for a buyer to go from touring a home to signing a contract. That’s helpful for trend-watching, but it’s still an estimate—not a hard number. - Local markets vary greatly
Even if there is an oversupply nationally, your local market might tell a different story. For example, affordable homes in high-demand areas are still moving fast, while high-priced or rural listings might be sitting longer.
National headlines do not necessarily reflect your local market
It’s important to remember that national housing headlines don’t always reflect what’s happening in your city or neighborhood. While Redfin’s report shows a general cooling of the U.S. market, regional dynamics tell a different story. For example, in the Northeast, inventory remains tight, homes are still receiving multiple offers, and buyers continue to compete—especially for well-priced, move-in-ready properties. In many areas across New York, New Jersey, and parts of New England, it’s still a seller’s market. That’s why it’s so important to base decisions on local market data, not just national trends.
In conclusion
Yes, there are more homes for sale than buyers right now—but the exact size of that gap depends on who’s counting and how. While Redfin’s data paints a picture of a shifting market, the 500,000 number may be inflated due to how they collect and model their information.
If you’re making a decision about buying or selling, the best approach is to look at local data, talk with a real estate or mortgage professional (like me!), and focus on your timing, budget, and goals.
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