Mortgage Market Report – July 7

Mortgage rates moved around a bit last week, but overall they’re much lower than they were earlier this year.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week at 6.75%, slightly up from 6.72% the week before, according to Mortgage News Daily. Freddie Mac reported 6.67%, down from 6.77% the previous week.

Mid-week, mortgage rates dipped to 6.67%, one of the lowest points we’ve seen since September 2024.

That’s more than half a percent lower than the 7.25% high we saw back in January.

Why did rates go down—and then back up?

Here’s what happened:

• Early in the week, rates dropped because the economy seemed to be slowing. Job numbers and inflation reports suggested things were cooling off, which usually leads to lower rates.
• But mid-week, new data showed the job market was actually doing better than expected. That made investors think the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates for now.
• On Friday, a new government spending bill passed, which could lead to higher inflation—and possibly higher rates.
• This morning, new threats of tariffs (taxes on imports) added more uncertainty.

So where are rates headed next?

There are two main ideas floating around:

Theory 1: Rates may go up.​
Economist Sonal Desai, who accurately predicted rate trends last year, believes rates will rise again. Why? Because the U.S. is spending more, trade with other countries is uncertain, and the economy is still holding up. If inflation and strong job growth continue, the Fed might avoid cutting rates.

Theory 2: Rates may go down.​
Some experts believe former President Donald Trump may push hard for lower interest rates. He’s already spoken out against the current Fed Chair and promised lower rates as part of his campaign. If the Fed lowers rates under pressure, that could bring mortgage rates down too.

Bottom line: No one can predict exactly what will happen, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on things so I can guide you through it.

---

NYC Housing Market Update

Here’s what’s happening in the New York City real estate market:

• According to Property Shark, the Two Bridges neighborhood in Manhattan saw home prices rise a massive 288% over the last 10 years—from $423,000 in 2014 to $1.64 million in 2024.
• ​A Corcoran report showed:
  • Closed sales in Manhattan are up 5%.
  • Inventory (number of homes for sale) is down 2%.
  • Median prices are up 3% year over year.
  • New development sales are up 24%.

• ​Douglas Elliman also reported:
  • Prices for co-ops and condos in Manhattan rose 1.6%.
  • Inventory increased 3.1%.
  • Homes are still selling quickly, with a slight drop in how long they stay on the market.

What this means for buyers:​
NYC real estate varies a lot by neighborhood. Some areas are heating up, while others are leveling off. If you’re thinking about buying, it’s smart to look closely at the specific area and type of home you’re interested in—not just the citywide average.

Want to talk through your options or see what’s possible? I’m here to help.

nicole@homeownering.com

917-650-0167